News of the week summary - 16/11/2025
Greece becomes a lifeline for Ukraine’s winter energy needs
Ukraine has secured a critical agreement with Greece to import natural gas as it confronts severe damage to its domestic energy infrastructure. Weeks of Russian strikes have sharply reduced Ukraine’s gas output. At one point nearly 60 percent of national production was knocked offline, leaving the country facing a winter supply gap that Kyiv estimates will require about €2 billion of imported gas to fill. This new deal is part of a broader emergency effort to ensure enough fuel for heating and electricity through the cold months.
The arrangement involves Greece’s state controlled energy company DEPA Commercial and Ukraine’s Naftogaz. Gas imported into Greece in liquefied form from the US will be regasified and then delivered northward through the so called vertical corridor, a pipeline network linking Greece to Bulgaria, Romania and Moldova before reaching Ukraine. Liquefied natural gas, or LNG, is natural gas cooled to a liquid so it can be shipped by tanker. Regasification terminals then convert it back into gaseous form for use in pipelines. This infrastructure creates flexibility for countries to import energy from suppliers outside traditional pipeline routes, which is why Greece’s position has become strategically important for Europe.
Athens has steadily emerged as a hub for diversifying Europe’s gas supply away from Russia. The US has increased its LNG presence in the region, formalized through recent agreements signed in Athens that aim to boost imports for redistribution across southeastern Europe. If the EU moves toward a full embargo on Russian energy, Greece’s role is likely to expand even further, giving it influence over regional energy security.
For Ukraine, diversifying its sources is essential both to meet immediate winter needs and to reduce vulnerability to further attacks. Russian strikes have hit gas and electricity facilities repeatedly since October, forcing heating outages in several cities and prompting nationwide rolling blackouts. This physical destruction directly affects economic activity, as energy shortages disrupt factories, transport networks and households. It also carries military implications since power and heating infrastructure support both civilian stability and wartime logistics.
Kyiv is seeking additional long term gas contracts, including with Azerbaijan, to build a more resilient supply base. But the near term challenge remains acute, especially as fighting intensifies in eastern regions. Russian advances around Pokrovsk and Zaporizhzhia threaten supply lines and complicate efforts to sustain energy and military infrastructure simultaneously.
The Greece Ukraine deal therefore represents not just a commercial transaction but a geopolitical link that helps stabilize Ukraine’s economy at a time when front line pressure and infrastructure losses are converging. It also reinforces Europe’s gradual shift toward an energy system less dependent on Russia, reshaping the continent’s energy map in the process.
Investment slump and falling home prices reinforce China’s economic strains
China’s latest economic data show a broad loss of momentum, with investment, housing and consumer activity all weakening in October. Fixed asset investment, a key measure of spending on infrastructure, factories and property, fell 1.7 percent compared with a year earlier. This is the sharpest decline since mid 2020 and far worse than economists expected. When investment falls, it usually signals that businesses are holding back on expansion because they see weaker future demand or face financial constraints.
The property sector continues to drag on growth. New home prices dropped 0.45 percent over the month, a faster fall than in September. China’s housing market is central to its economy because it influences consumer confidence, drives construction activity and affects local government finances. Falling prices can trigger a negative loop: households delay purchases, developers struggle with cash flow and banks become more cautious with lending. This makes it harder for the government to revive the sector even with support measures.
Industrial production grew 4.9 percent from a year earlier, but this was slower than forecast and well below September’s 6.5 percent. Retail sales growth also eased slightly to 2.9 percent. These figures suggest that both factories and consumers are losing steam, reinforcing the idea that demand remains fragile at home and abroad. Beijing has acknowledged the challenges, citing global uncertainty, but insists the economy remains stable overall.
A notable weakness is in private sector investment, which has fallen 4.5 percent this year. Private companies tend to scale back spending more quickly when confidence is low or when policy environments feel unpredictable. This retreat highlights deeper concerns over profitability and longer term prospects in sectors suffering from overcapacity or tight regulation.
A policy effort known as the anti involution campaign may also be contributing to the slowdown. This initiative aims to limit aggressive price competition in industries like manufacturing and services. In theory it supports healthier margins for companies, but in practice it may discourage expansion and investment at a moment when the economy needs more dynamism. Involution refers to excessive internal competition that fails to create real productivity gains. China’s attempt to address it reflects a structural challenge: too many firms chasing too little demand.
Despite the headwinds, most analysts still expect China to meet its full year growth target of about 5 percent because of earlier economic momentum. But the October data highlight that sustaining strong growth will require continued policy support. Weak investment and a declining property sector weigh on employment, consumption and local government revenues, creating a drag that monetary and fiscal measures will need to offset.
U.S. and Switzerland resolve tariff rift through investment pledge
The United States and Switzerland have settled a months long trade conflict through an agreement that sharply lowers US tariffs on Swiss goods, after Washington had imposed a 39 percent tariff on Swiss imports in August. Switzerland, heavily reliant on exports of luxury goods, pharmaceuticals and specialized machinery, felt the impact quickly, prompting corporate leaders to lobby Washington for relief.
The new deal cuts those tariffs to 15 percent, bringing Swiss treatment in line with that offered to the European Union. In return, Switzerland has committed to ramping up its economic footprint in the US. The Swiss government agreed to invest 200 billion dollars over the course of President Trump’s term, with 70 billion of that planned for next year. It also pledged to shift some production capacity to the United States in industries such as pharmaceuticals, gold refining and railway equipment manufacturing. Moving production sites can strengthen bilateral ties by generating local jobs and reducing trade imbalances.
The dispute had dragged on longer than negotiations with other US partners, even as Washington clinched deals with the UK and EU. Swiss officials had been aiming to secure tariff cuts similar to those extended to Europe. Pressure intensified after executives from major Swiss luxury groups, including Rolex and Richemont, visited the White House to describe how the levies were hurting the country’s exporters.
IEA sees oil demand growing for the next 25 years
New projections from the International Energy Agency show that global oil and gas use is set to rise for the next quarter century if governments make no additional efforts to cut emissions. This marks a sharp shift in the IEA’s outlook. Until this year the agency assumed that fossil fuel consumption would peak before 2030, a conclusion that was central to global climate discussions but heavily disputed by major producers, including the United States and the oil and gas industry.
The IEA’s updated World Energy Outlook reflects what it sees as a weakening global commitment to climate goals. Several governments have shifted policy priorities toward energy security and affordability, while progress on electric vehicle adoption has slowed. These trends form the basis of a new scenario the agency calls Current Policies, which assumes countries introduce no further climate measures beyond what is already in force. Under this path oil demand increases from about 100 million barrels per day today to 113 million barrels per day by mid century, and global emissions do not decline.
Even in a somewhat more ambitious scenario, known as Stated Policies, which includes planned but not yet fully implemented measures, oil demand only peaks around 2030. In that case half of all cars sold by 2035 would be electric, compared with a plateau of around 40 percent in the more pessimistic scenario. Electric vehicle adoption is central to long term oil demand because transport accounts for the majority of crude consumption. Slower EV uptake delays the point at which oil use levels off.
Washington pressures Europe as trade pact stalls
Tensions between the United States and the European Union have resurfaced as Washington grows increasingly impatient with the EU’s slow rollout of promised tariff reductions. The dispute centers on commitments both sides made earlier this year to ease trade frictions. While the US has already lowered several of its own tariffs on European goods, the EU has not yet implemented its side of the bargain. The delays stem largely from procedural hurdles in the European Parliament, where lawmakers intend to vote on the measures only next year.
At the heart of the disagreement is the question of tariff symmetry. Tariffs are taxes imposed on imported goods, and lowering them is meant to increase market access for foreign producers. The US argues that American exporters still face higher barriers in Europe than European companies face in the US. Washington’s concern extends beyond tariffs to what it calls non tariff barriers, which include product regulations or supply chain rules that can restrict imports even without raising formal duties.
The EU pledged to lower duties on a range of American products, from industrial goods to certain agricultural items, but implementation is stuck behind legislative amendments. Some lawmakers want to delay lifting tariffs on steel and aluminum until the US reverses its own sharp hikes on those metals.
US officials warn that Europe risks wasting a period of improved diplomatic relations. After years of tension over issues such as defense spending and Ukraine, Washington believes President Trump has adopted a more conciliatory stance toward Europe in recent months. This has created an opening to stabilize transatlantic commerce, but delays from Brussels threaten to undermine that goodwill.
The US is also pushing back against EU regulatory initiatives that it sees as disadvantaging American firms. These include rules on corporate supply chain transparency and restrictions on goods tied to deforestation. When regulations shape how products must be sourced or manufactured, they can significantly influence which companies retain market access, making them a powerful form of economic leverage.
If the EU’s delays continue, investors may brace for further trade turbulence between two of the world’s largest economies. Trade uncertainty can weigh on business confidence by increasing costs and reducing visibility on future policy, which in turn can slow investment and dampen economic activity. Both sides have incentives to avoid that outcome, yet political timing and domestic pressures risk prolonging the standoff.